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Friday Thoughts

The Federal Reserve has a tough task ahead of them. Unfortunately, they have backed themselves into a tight corner over the last several years. As much as they want a “soft landing”, it’s becoming obvious that is not likely.

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Friday Thoughts

So, why the recent optimism in the stock market? I think that there is a sense that inflation will be coming down sooner, rather than later. That would allow the Federal Reserve to ease off on their interest rate increases. I believe that this thinking is wrong.

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Friday Thoughts

It’s important not to get too worried about the day-to-day gyrations of the markets. For one, it’ll drive you nuts.

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Friday Thoughts

Over the last few weeks, I’ve come to realize that I think I’ve been thinking wrong about a very important factor in the “next normal” for our economy. And, I think many policy makers and business leaders are thinking wrong about it, too. The issue is about the return to office versus work from home debate.

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Friday Thoughts

Earlier this week, the prevailing rate for the 5 year US treasury bond went higher than the prevailing rate for the 10 year US treasury bond. Yesterday, the 5 year exceeded the 30 year US treasury bond. Today, the 2 year US treasury bond has passed the 10 year.

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Friday Thoughts

This morning, after finishing her breakfast, Clara asked us what day it was because she’s said she couldn’t keep track. I thought about that later, and I agree. I can’t hardly keep track of what day it is, or what’s going on in the world.